Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBSP3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,082.02 - $2,098.28$1,966.40
Multi-Stage$328.15 - $359.14$343.36
Blended Fair Value$1,154.88
Current Price$132.17
Upside773.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.65%7.11%1.361.210.880.371.301.080.961.120.200.30
YoY Growth--12.77%36.47%137.41%-71.44%20.28%13.25%-14.69%449.45%-31.03%-56.76%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.44%1.74%0.78%3.16%2.77%2.27%3.26%0.63%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,211.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,292.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,918.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,442.31901.44540.87
Cash Retained (M)3,918.913,918.913,918.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,442.31-901.44-540.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,476.603,017.473,378.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)683.51683.51683.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.624.414.94
LTM Dividend per Share4.824.824.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.624.414.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.449.239.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,082.02$1,966.40$2,098.28
Upside / Downside718.66%1,387.78%1,487.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,211.547,680.298,179.518,711.179,277.409,880.4310,176.84
Payout Ratio45.66%54.53%63.39%72.26%81.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,292.634,187.775,185.376,294.977,526.908,892.399,413.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,901.743,938.733,975.71
Year 2 PV (M)4,501.234,586.974,673.51
Year 3 PV (M)5,091.205,237.355,386.27
Year 4 PV (M)5,671.775,889.896,114.25
Year 5 PV (M)6,243.056,544.596,857.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)198,886.42208,492.71218,466.65
Equity Value (M)224,295.42234,690.24245,474.07
Shares Outstanding (M)683.51683.51683.51
Fair Value$328.15$343.36$359.14
Upside / Downside148.28%159.79%171.72%

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