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Rand Mining Limited (RND.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.20 - $4.94$4.01
Multi-Stage$7.25 - $7.98$7.61
Blended Fair Value$5.81
Current Price$1.81
Upside221.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.11%0.00%0.100.100.100.100.110.111.430.060.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-5.44%0.00%-92.59%2,300.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.53%6.62%8.26%7.58%7.29%5.13%42.62%2.20%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.962.471.48
Cash Retained (M)8.428.428.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.96-2.47-1.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.465.956.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.8756.8756.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.20$4.01$4.94
Upside / Downside77.03%121.63%172.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.7919.6019.4019.2119.0118.8219.39
Payout Ratio57.47%63.97%70.48%76.99%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3812.5413.6714.7915.8816.9417.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6511.7711.89
Year 2 PV (M)11.8112.0512.30
Year 3 PV (M)11.8712.2412.61
Year 4 PV (M)11.8412.3312.84
Year 5 PV (M)11.7512.3612.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)353.65372.07391.24
Equity Value (M)412.57432.81453.87
Shares Outstanding (M)56.8756.8756.87
Fair Value$7.25$7.61$7.98
Upside / Downside300.78%320.44%340.90%

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