Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Rio Tinto Group (RIO1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$221.59 - $450.62$309.84
Multi-Stage$276.85 - $303.13$289.75
Blended Fair Value$299.80
Current Price$58.53
Upside412.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.43%6.59%4.303.967.189.403.756.323.282.601.672.49
YoY Growth--8.58%-44.83%-23.64%150.44%-40.66%92.94%26.02%55.96%-33.15%9.87%
Dividend Yield--7.32%5.29%10.12%13.88%4.94%10.67%6.91%4.86%4.26%8.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,021.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,566.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,455.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,204.202,627.631,576.58
Cash Retained (M)7,455.007,455.007,455.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,204.20-2,627.63-1,576.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,250.804,827.385,878.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
LTM Dividend per Share8.308.308.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2911.2611.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Fair Value$221.59$309.84$450.62
Upside / Downside278.59%429.38%669.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,021.0021,745.8322,495.6423,271.3224,073.7324,903.8225,650.94
Payout Ratio64.54%69.63%74.72%79.81%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,566.0015,141.2616,809.0318,573.8120,440.3122,413.4423,727.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Year 1 PV (M)13,986.9714,123.4914,260.02
Year 2 PV (M)14,343.8414,625.2314,909.35
Year 3 PV (M)14,641.4915,074.4315,515.83
Year 4 PV (M)14,884.4615,474.1716,081.24
Year 5 PV (M)15,077.0215,827.3616,607.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)379,454.41398,338.84417,967.76
Equity Value (M)452,388.18473,463.53495,341.49
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
Fair Value$276.85$289.75$303.13
Upside / Downside373.00%395.04%417.91%

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