Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Public Joint-Stock Company PhosAgro (PHOR.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106,804.77 - $177,047.89$165,919.80
Multi-Stage$28,618.78 - $31,332.99$29,950.91
Blended Fair Value$97,935.36
Current Price$7,182.00
Upside1,263.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.76%34.33%847.54729.801,097.38557.99300.02248.99105.00114.00216.02140.00
YoY Growth--16.13%-33.50%96.67%85.99%20.49%137.12%-7.89%-47.23%54.30%216.02%
Dividend Yield--13.26%10.82%14.62%6.94%7.41%10.04%4.39%4.92%9.13%5.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115,287.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43,404.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,883.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23,057.4014,410.888,646.53
Cash Retained (M)71,883.0071,883.0071,883.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-23,057.40-14,410.88-8,646.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)48,825.6057,472.1363,236.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)129.50129.50129.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share377.03443.80488.31
LTM Dividend per Share335.17335.17335.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share377.03443.80488.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend712.20778.97823.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106,804.77$165,919.80$177,047.89
Upside / Downside1,387.12%2,210.22%2,365.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115,287.00122,780.66130,761.40139,260.89148,312.85157,953.18162,691.78
Payout Ratio37.65%48.12%58.59%69.06%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43,404.0059,080.7376,612.0496,172.82117,952.81142,157.86150,489.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55,107.3955,629.7456,152.08
Year 2 PV (M)66,653.8367,923.4069,204.95
Year 3 PV (M)78,044.8880,285.2782,568.13
Year 4 PV (M)89,282.1092,715.6496,247.27
Year 5 PV (M)100,367.03105,214.79110,248.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,316,676.843,476,873.583,643,201.41
Equity Value (M)3,706,132.083,878,642.424,057,621.94
Shares Outstanding (M)129.50129.50129.50
Fair Value$28,618.78$29,950.91$31,332.99
Upside / Downside298.48%317.03%336.27%

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