Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $104.11 - $196.29 | $141.50 |
| Multi-Stage | $154.04 - $168.90 | $161.33 |
| Blended Fair Value | $151.41 | |
| Current Price | $153.65 | |
| Upside | -1.46% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.85% | 3.08% | 4.03 | 3.80 | 3.67 | 3.58 | 3.37 | 3.18 | 3.06 | 2.98 | 2.95 | 3.04 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.01% | 3.48% | 2.61% | 6.14% | 6.09% | 3.88% | 2.57% | 1.02% | -2.69% | 2.04% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.62% | 2.19% | 2.52% | 2.84% | 2.41% | 2.29% | 2.46% | 3.57% | 3.25% | 3.38% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 16,765.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 9,976.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 6,789.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3,353.00 | 2,095.63 | 1,257.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 6,789.00 | 6,789.00 | 6,789.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3,353.00 | -2,095.63 | -1,257.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,436.00 | 4,693.38 | 5,531.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,449.78 | 2,449.78 | 2,449.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.40 | 1.92 | 2.26 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.07 | 4.07 | 4.07 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.40 | 1.92 | 2.26 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.47 | 5.99 | 6.33 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.84% | 6.84% | 6.84% |
| Growth Rate | 1.50% | 2.50% | 3.50% |
| Fair Value | $104.11 | $141.50 | $196.29 |
| Upside / Downside | -32.24% | -7.91% | 27.75% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 16,765.00 | 17,184.85 | 17,615.22 | 18,056.36 | 18,508.56 | 18,972.07 | 19,541.23 |
| Payout Ratio | 59.50% | 65.60% | 71.70% | 77.80% | 83.90% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 9,976.00 | 11,273.94 | 12,630.63 | 14,048.21 | 15,528.86 | 17,074.86 | 18,075.64 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.84% | 6.84% | 6.84% |
| Growth Rate | 1.50% | 2.50% | 3.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 10,449.01 | 10,551.95 | 10,654.89 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 10,849.85 | 11,064.69 | 11,281.63 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 11,184.57 | 11,518.40 | 11,858.81 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 11,458.75 | 11,917.02 | 12,388.91 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 11,677.62 | 12,264.30 | 12,874.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 321,742.00 | 337,906.05 | 354,713.32 |
| Equity Value (M) | 377,361.80 | 395,222.41 | 413,771.88 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,449.78 | 2,449.78 | 2,449.78 |
| Fair Value | $154.04 | $161.33 | $168.90 |
| Upside / Downside | 0.25% | 5.00% | 9.93% |
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