Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PJSC Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,729.03 - $4,393.42$4,117.28
Multi-Stage$836.04 - $916.57$875.56
Blended Fair Value$2,496.42
Current Price$85.35
Upside2,824.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.009.0519.950.010.064.361.521.002.800.79
YoY Growth---100.00%-54.65%145,984.00%-77.88%-98.58%186.88%52.02%-64.29%253.20%158.65%
Dividend Yield--0.00%8.86%21.82%0.01%0.09%8.42%2.00%2.24%13.40%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40,432.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,727.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)37,705.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,086.515,054.073,032.44
Cash Retained (M)37,705.5337,705.5337,705.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,086.51-5,054.07-3,032.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)29,619.0332,651.4734,673.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,830.241,830.241,830.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.1817.8418.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.1817.8418.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.6719.3320.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,729.03$4,117.28$4,393.42
Upside / Downside4,269.10%4,724.00%5,047.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40,432.5343,060.6545,859.5948,840.4652,015.0955,396.0757,057.96
Payout Ratio6.74%23.40%40.05%56.70%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,727.0010,074.3218,365.2727,691.4838,152.5049,856.4752,778.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,442.019,531.519,621.00
Year 2 PV (M)16,132.2416,439.5116,749.68
Year 3 PV (M)22,797.7623,452.2024,119.05
Year 4 PV (M)29,438.6330,570.7631,735.23
Year 5 PV (M)36,054.9337,796.4039,604.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,416,287.681,484,694.911,555,720.24
Equity Value (M)1,530,153.251,602,485.281,677,549.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,830.241,830.241,830.24
Fair Value$836.04$875.56$916.57
Upside / Downside879.54%925.85%973.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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