Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $51.64 - $93.96 | $69.22 |
| Multi-Stage | $76.50 - $83.84 | $80.10 |
| Blended Fair Value | $74.66 | |
| Current Price | $34.02 | |
| Upside | 119.46% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.55% | 1.69% | 1.40 | 1.29 | 1.19 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.97 | 1.26 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.08 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.32% | 8.31% | 49.37% | 15.45% | -28.87% | -22.62% | -11.14% | 3.42% | 26.74% | -8.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.74% | 4.44% | 4.14% | 2.87% | 3.89% | 3.27% | 4.55% | 4.49% | 4.90% | 3.73% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 12,160.50 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 8,075.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,085.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,432.10 | 1,520.06 | 912.04 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,085.50 | 4,085.50 | 4,085.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,432.10 | -1,520.06 | -912.04 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,653.40 | 2,565.44 | 3,173.46 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,362.04 | 3,362.04 | 3,362.04 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.94 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.94 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.89 | 3.16 | 3.35 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.09% | 7.09% | 7.09% |
| Growth Rate | 1.41% | 2.41% | 3.41% |
| Fair Value | $51.64 | $69.22 | $93.96 |
| Upside / Downside | 51.80% | 103.48% | 176.19% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 12,160.50 | 12,453.16 | 12,752.86 | 13,059.78 | 13,374.08 | 13,695.95 | 14,106.83 |
| Payout Ratio | 66.40% | 71.12% | 75.84% | 80.56% | 85.28% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 8,075.00 | 8,857.04 | 9,672.04 | 10,521.14 | 11,405.51 | 12,326.35 | 13,048.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.09% | 7.09% | 7.09% |
| Growth Rate | 1.41% | 2.41% | 3.41% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 8,189.99 | 8,270.75 | 8,351.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 8,270.04 | 8,433.95 | 8,599.47 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 8,318.54 | 8,567.07 | 8,820.50 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 8,338.61 | 8,672.42 | 9,016.16 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 8,333.13 | 8,752.19 | 9,187.94 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 215,754.84 | 226,604.83 | 237,887.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 257,205.13 | 269,301.21 | 281,862.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,362.04 | 3,362.04 | 3,362.04 |
| Fair Value | $76.50 | $80.10 | $83.84 |
| Upside / Downside | 124.88% | 135.45% | 146.43% |
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