Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Merck Tbk (MERK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,755.45 - $78,757.29$53,351.27
Multi-Stage$11,258.60 - $12,326.23$11,782.56
Blended Fair Value$32,566.92
Current Price$2,860.00
Upside1,038.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS168.91%0.22%318.99321.18239.43123.32128.652.272,815.51273.4199.80490.54
YoY Growth---0.68%34.14%94.15%-4.14%5,571.43%-99.92%929.78%173.95%-79.65%57.25%
Dividend Yield--9.35%8.11%4.96%3.08%4.06%0.13%69.86%4.34%1.08%6.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178,505.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76,296.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)102,208.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35,701.0622,313.1613,387.90
Cash Retained (M)102,208.43102,208.43102,208.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-35,701.06-22,313.16-13,387.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)66,507.3779,895.2788,820.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)448.00448.00448.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share148.45178.34198.26
LTM Dividend per Share170.31170.31170.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share148.45178.34198.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend318.76348.64368.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Fair Value$19,755.45$53,351.27$78,757.29
Upside / Downside590.75%1,765.43%2,653.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178,505.28188,935.30199,974.75211,659.23224,026.43237,116.25244,229.73
Payout Ratio42.74%52.19%61.65%71.10%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76,296.8598,612.24123,274.92150,483.00180,449.74213,404.62225,912.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)91,689.0192,563.5493,438.08
Year 2 PV (M)106,573.10108,615.80110,677.89
Year 3 PV (M)120,961.38124,455.71128,016.70
Year 4 PV (M)134,865.84140,085.37145,454.95
Year 5 PV (M)148,298.23155,506.83162,993.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,441,466.604,657,361.114,881,570.67
Equity Value (M)5,043,854.155,278,588.365,522,151.37
Shares Outstanding (M)448.00448.00448.00
Fair Value$11,258.60$11,782.56$12,326.23
Upside / Downside293.66%311.98%330.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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