Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $139.73 - $232.50 | $180.66 |
| Multi-Stage | $169.79 - $185.53 | $177.52 |
| Blended Fair Value | $179.09 | |
| Current Price | $292.17 | |
| Upside | -38.70% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.34% | 4.24% | 6.78 | 6.31 | 5.81 | 5.46 | 5.23 | 4.99 | 4.54 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.50 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.44% | 8.75% | 6.37% | 4.42% | 4.77% | 10.01% | 5.40% | 1.01% | -5.33% | 0.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.17% | 2.25% | 2.08% | 2.21% | 2.33% | 3.02% | 2.41% | 2.75% | 3.29% | 3.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8,415.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,061.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3,354.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,683.00 | 1,051.88 | 631.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3,354.00 | 3,354.00 | 3,354.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,683.00 | -1,051.88 | -631.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,671.00 | 2,302.13 | 2,722.88 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 717.85 | 717.85 | 717.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.33 | 3.21 | 3.79 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 7.05 | 7.05 | 7.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.33 | 3.21 | 3.79 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.38 | 10.26 | 10.84 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.24% | 3.24% | 4.24% |
| Fair Value | $139.73 | $180.66 | $232.50 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.17% | -38.17% | -20.42% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8,415.00 | 8,687.35 | 8,968.52 | 9,258.79 | 9,558.45 | 9,867.82 | 10,163.85 |
| Payout Ratio | 60.14% | 66.11% | 72.09% | 78.06% | 84.03% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,061.00 | 5,743.56 | 6,465.01 | 7,227.14 | 8,031.83 | 8,881.04 | 9,401.56 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.24% | 3.24% | 4.24% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,213.60 | 5,264.59 | 5,315.59 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,326.98 | 5,431.70 | 5,537.44 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,405.48 | 5,565.65 | 5,728.96 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,453.03 | 5,669.53 | 5,892.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,473.22 | 5,746.19 | 6,029.93 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 95,015.01 | 99,753.62 | 104,679.45 |
| Equity Value (M) | 121,887.31 | 127,431.28 | 133,183.78 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 717.85 | 717.85 | 717.85 |
| Fair Value | $169.79 | $177.52 | $185.53 |
| Upside / Downside | -41.88% | -39.24% | -36.50% |
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