Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $531.72 - $976.15 | $914.80 |
| Multi-Stage | $158.35 - $173.11 | $165.59 |
| Blended Fair Value | $540.20 | |
| Current Price | $16.46 | |
| Upside | 3,181.87% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 23.91% | 140.98% | 1.54 | 1.31 | 0.98 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.89 | 0.32 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 17.47% | 33.73% | 30.80% | 6.69% | 33.26% | -10.27% | 14.32% | -42.16% | 179.37% | 136,282.47% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.33% | 6.70% | 9.37% | 9.38% | 7.45% | 9.97% | 14.45% | 12.73% | 22.92% | 10.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,246.47 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,680.08 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 566.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 649.29 | 405.81 | 243.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 566.39 | 566.39 | 566.39 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -649.29 | -405.81 | -243.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -82.90 | 160.58 | 322.91 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 661.41 | 661.41 | 661.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.13 | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.05 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.13 | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.93 | 4.29 | 4.54 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.28% | 6.28% | 6.28% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $531.72 | $914.80 | $976.15 |
| Upside / Downside | 3,130.35% | 5,457.70% | 5,830.45% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,246.47 | 3,457.49 | 3,682.22 | 3,921.57 | 4,176.47 | 4,447.94 | 4,581.38 |
| Payout Ratio | 82.55% | 84.04% | 85.53% | 87.02% | 88.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,680.08 | 2,905.77 | 3,149.49 | 3,412.60 | 3,696.62 | 4,003.15 | 4,237.77 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.28% | 6.28% | 6.28% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,708.42 | 2,734.09 | 2,759.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,736.21 | 2,788.33 | 2,840.94 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,763.44 | 2,842.77 | 2,923.61 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,790.13 | 2,897.43 | 3,007.80 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,816.28 | 2,952.31 | 3,093.54 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 90,919.34 | 95,310.78 | 99,870.29 |
| Equity Value (M) | 104,733.83 | 109,525.72 | 114,495.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 661.41 | 661.41 | 661.41 |
| Fair Value | $158.35 | $165.59 | $173.11 |
| Upside / Downside | 862.02% | 906.03% | 951.69% |
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| LREN3.SA | Lojas Renner S.A. | 4.75% | $0.64 | 45.84% |
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| CHE-UN.TO | Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund | 4.73% | $0.70 | 71.01% |
| GVH | Globavend Holdings Limited | 4.73% | $0.07 | 61.06% |
| MOUR.BR | Moury Construct S.A. | 4.73% | $27.35 | 20.85% |
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| 601598.SS | Sinotrans Limited | 4.72% | $0.29 | 56.81% |
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| TD | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | 4.72% | $4.46 | 37.31% |
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