Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PT KMI Wire and Cable Tbk (KBLI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$389.50 - $564.37$474.43
Multi-Stage$966.03 - $1,065.81$1,014.92
Blended Fair Value$744.67
Current Price$366.00
Upside103.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.13%7.18%7.994.004.000.000.008.907.619.466.993.99
YoY Growth--100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.89%-19.51%35.24%75.28%-0.05%
Dividend Yield--2.08%1.29%1.36%0.00%0.00%2.13%2.28%2.06%0.96%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219,568.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68,082.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)151,486.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43,913.6427,446.0316,467.62
Cash Retained (M)151,486.20151,486.20151,486.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-43,913.64-27,446.03-16,467.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)107,572.55124,040.17135,018.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,007.244,007.244,007.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share26.8430.9533.69
LTM Dividend per Share16.9916.9916.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share26.8430.9533.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend43.8347.9450.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-4.13%-3.13%-2.13%
Fair Value$389.50$474.43$564.37
Upside / Downside6.42%29.63%54.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219,568.22212,691.89206,030.90199,578.53193,328.23187,273.67192,891.88
Payout Ratio31.01%42.81%54.60%66.40%78.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68,082.0291,044.43112,501.81132,525.91151,185.47168,546.30178,424.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-4.13%-3.13%-2.13%
Year 1 PV (M)84,480.4185,361.6286,242.84
Year 2 PV (M)96,864.5498,895.86100,948.26
Year 3 PV (M)105,878.74109,226.68112,644.46
Year 4 PV (M)112,078.07116,828.08121,727.51
Year 5 PV (M)115,939.78122,114.08128,548.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,355,869.523,534,584.253,720,833.03
Equity Value (M)3,871,111.054,067,010.584,270,944.77
Shares Outstanding (M)4,007.244,007.244,007.24
Fair Value$966.03$1,014.92$1,065.81
Upside / Downside163.94%177.30%191.20%

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