Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC KuibyshevAzot (KAZT.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,699.80 - $14,962.51$14,022.07
Multi-Stage$19,408.30 - $21,308.74$20,340.74
Blended Fair Value$17,181.40
Current Price$458.20
Upside3,649.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.59%24.59%22.0448.9843.977.811.356.275.392.205.654.15
YoY Growth---55.00%11.39%462.91%479.13%-78.48%16.20%145.33%-61.10%36.35%69.54%
Dividend Yield--4.30%7.36%7.34%1.63%0.71%4.24%4.56%2.52%6.30%5.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,830.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,228.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,602.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,566.061,603.79962.27
Cash Retained (M)11,602.2111,602.2111,602.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,566.06-1,603.79-962.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,036.159,998.4210,639.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.53170.53170.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.9958.6362.39
LTM Dividend per Share7.207.207.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.9958.6362.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.1965.8369.59
WACC / Discount Rate-13.15%-13.15%-13.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,699.80$14,022.07$14,962.51
Upside / Downside2,671.67%2,960.25%3,165.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,830.3013,664.2614,552.4415,498.3516,505.7417,578.6218,105.97
Payout Ratio9.57%25.66%41.74%57.83%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,228.093,505.906,074.638,962.5012,200.1115,820.7516,748.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-13.15%-13.15%-13.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,998.884,036.784,074.68
Year 2 PV (M)7,903.118,053.648,205.59
Year 3 PV (M)13,299.8113,681.6014,070.63
Year 4 PV (M)20,649.9621,444.1022,260.93
Year 5 PV (M)30,543.6932,018.9633,550.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,233,388.713,389,562.603,551,713.62
Equity Value (M)3,309,784.163,468,797.683,633,876.15
Shares Outstanding (M)170.53170.53170.53
Fair Value$19,408.30$20,340.74$21,308.74
Upside / Downside4,135.77%4,339.27%4,550.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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