Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $534.56 - $1,632.41 | $851.80 |
| Multi-Stage | $353.83 - $386.63 | $369.93 |
| Blended Fair Value | $610.87 | |
| Current Price | $315.43 | |
| Upside | 93.66% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.67% | 7.78% | 5.25 | 4.79 | 4.82 | 4.57 | 4.51 | 4.39 | 3.59 | 3.20 | 3.01 | 2.80 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.80% | -0.73% | 5.48% | 1.32% | 2.81% | 22.10% | 12.41% | 6.10% | 7.66% | 12.63% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.14% | 2.41% | 3.70% | 3.35% | 2.96% | 4.87% | 3.43% | 2.91% | 3.43% | 4.73% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 58,028.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 16,066.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 41,962.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 11,605.60 | 7,253.50 | 4,352.10 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 41,962.00 | 41,962.00 | 41,962.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -11,605.60 | -7,253.50 | -4,352.10 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 30,356.40 | 34,708.50 | 37,609.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,813.53 | 2,813.53 | 2,813.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10.79 | 12.34 | 13.37 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10.79 | 12.34 | 13.37 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 16.50 | 18.05 | 19.08 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.76% | 8.76% | 8.76% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $534.56 | $851.80 | $1,632.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 69.47% | 170.05% | 417.52% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 58,028.00 | 61,799.82 | 65,816.81 | 70,094.90 | 74,651.07 | 79,503.39 | 81,888.49 |
| Payout Ratio | 27.69% | 40.15% | 52.61% | 65.07% | 77.54% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 16,066.00 | 24,812.20 | 34,627.53 | 45,614.01 | 57,882.44 | 71,553.05 | 75,746.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.76% | 8.76% | 8.76% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 22,600.27 | 22,814.49 | 23,028.71 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 28,728.83 | 29,276.04 | 29,828.40 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 34,470.14 | 35,459.66 | 36,467.93 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 39,841.89 | 41,374.10 | 42,950.08 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 44,861.06 | 47,027.86 | 49,277.60 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 825,010.66 | 864,858.98 | 906,232.39 |
| Equity Value (M) | 995,512.85 | 1,040,811.12 | 1,087,785.11 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,813.53 | 2,813.53 | 2,813.53 |
| Fair Value | $353.83 | $369.93 | $386.63 |
| Upside / Downside | 12.17% | 17.28% | 22.57% |
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