Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $214.63 - $333.36 | $269.55 |
| Multi-Stage | $507.96 - $558.67 | $532.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $401.18 | |
| Current Price | $230.00 | |
| Upside | 74.43% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 400.00% | -50.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.55% | 1.32% | 2.09% | 0.00% | 3.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 214,406.09 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 150,592.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 63,814.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 42,881.22 | 26,800.76 | 16,080.46 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 63,814.09 | 63,814.09 | 63,814.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -42,881.22 | -26,800.76 | -16,080.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 20,932.87 | 37,013.33 | 47,733.64 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 9,412.00 | 9,412.00 | 9,412.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.22 | 3.93 | 5.07 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.22 | 3.93 | 5.07 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 18.22 | 19.93 | 21.07 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $214.63 | $269.55 | $333.36 |
| Upside / Downside | -6.68% | 17.19% | 44.94% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 214,406.09 | 212,262.03 | 210,139.41 | 208,038.02 | 205,957.64 | 203,898.06 | 210,015.00 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.24% | 74.19% | 78.14% | 82.09% | 86.05% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 150,592.00 | 157,476.03 | 164,207.32 | 170,788.24 | 177,221.11 | 183,508.25 | 194,263.88 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 146,617.77 | 148,113.87 | 149,609.97 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 142,343.24 | 145,263.02 | 148,212.45 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 137,839.74 | 142,102.53 | 146,452.31 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 133,169.30 | 138,688.55 | 144,377.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 128,385.63 | 135,070.97 | 142,031.95 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,092,557.13 | 4,305,666.07 | 4,527,561.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,780,912.81 | 5,014,905.01 | 5,258,245.92 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 9,412.00 | 9,412.00 | 9,412.00 |
| Fair Value | $507.96 | $532.82 | $558.67 |
| Upside / Downside | 120.85% | 131.66% | 142.90% |
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