Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $64.97 - $101.42 | $81.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $148.87 - $163.86 | $156.22 |
| Blended Fair Value | $118.99 | |
| Current Price | $140.99 | |
| Upside | -15.60% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.31% | -4.00% | 6.51 | 6.59 | 6.66 | 6.70 | 0.00 | 10.05 | 10.05 | 10.05 | 10.05 | 10.05 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.14% | -1.03% | -0.66% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.63% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.45% | 4.52% | 5.03% | 4.00% | 0.00% | 5.89% | 7.23% | 7.30% | 4.22% | 3.60% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 10,881.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,221.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5,660.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,176.20 | 1,360.13 | 816.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5,660.00 | 5,660.00 | 5,660.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,176.20 | -1,360.13 | -816.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,483.80 | 4,299.88 | 4,843.93 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,605.84 | 1,605.84 | 1,605.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.17 | 2.68 | 3.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.17 | 2.68 | 3.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.42 | 5.93 | 6.27 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.85% | -0.85% | 0.15% |
| Fair Value | $64.97 | $81.77 | $101.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -53.92% | -42.00% | -28.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 10,881.00 | 10,788.25 | 10,696.29 | 10,605.12 | 10,514.72 | 10,425.10 | 10,737.85 |
| Payout Ratio | 47.98% | 56.39% | 64.79% | 73.19% | 81.60% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,221.00 | 6,083.08 | 6,930.09 | 7,762.22 | 8,579.65 | 9,382.59 | 9,932.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.85% | -0.85% | 0.15% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,662.89 | 5,720.59 | 5,778.29 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6,005.76 | 6,128.76 | 6,253.02 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 6,262.23 | 6,455.60 | 6,652.91 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6,443.58 | 6,710.23 | 6,985.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 6,559.87 | 6,900.93 | 7,256.03 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 208,122.36 | 218,943.15 | 230,209.40 |
| Equity Value (M) | 239,056.69 | 250,859.26 | 263,134.71 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,605.84 | 1,605.84 | 1,605.84 |
| Fair Value | $148.87 | $156.22 | $163.86 |
| Upside / Downside | 5.59% | 10.80% | 16.22% |
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