Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,124.17 - $2,672.14 | $2,504.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $399.17 - $436.54 | $417.51 |
| Blended Fair Value | $1,460.85 | |
| Current Price | $127.00 | |
| Upside | 1,050.28% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 110.68% | 111.86% | 9.33 | 63.07 | 34.99 | 3.52 | 1.12 | 0.22 | 0.66 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -85.21% | 80.25% | 892.83% | 213.56% | 400.25% | -65.86% | 3,632.26% | -50.79% | 200.00% | 133.33% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.69% | 45.44% | 11.59% | 1.11% | 0.85% | 0.32% | 2.26% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.07% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,362.10 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,455.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 906.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 472.42 | 295.26 | 177.16 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 906.50 | 906.50 | 906.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -472.42 | -295.26 | -177.16 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 434.08 | 611.24 | 729.34 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 175.80 | 175.80 | 175.80 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.47 | 3.48 | 4.15 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8.28 | 8.28 | 8.28 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.47 | 3.48 | 4.15 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.75 | 11.76 | 12.43 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $1,124.17 | $2,504.19 | $2,672.14 |
| Upside / Downside | 785.17% | 1,871.80% | 2,004.05% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,362.10 | 2,515.64 | 2,679.15 | 2,853.30 | 3,038.76 | 3,236.28 | 3,333.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.62% | 67.30% | 72.97% | 78.65% | 84.32% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,455.60 | 1,692.99 | 1,955.08 | 2,244.10 | 2,562.42 | 2,912.65 | 3,083.37 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,574.60 | 1,589.53 | 1,604.45 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,691.22 | 1,723.43 | 1,755.95 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,805.49 | 1,857.32 | 1,910.13 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,917.44 | 1,991.18 | 2,067.02 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,027.11 | 2,125.02 | 2,226.67 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 61,158.66 | 64,112.64 | 67,179.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 70,174.51 | 73,399.11 | 76,743.91 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 175.80 | 175.80 | 175.80 |
| Fair Value | $399.17 | $417.51 | $436.54 |
| Upside / Downside | 214.31% | 228.75% | 243.73% |
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| MOUR.BR | Moury Construct S.A. | 4.73% | $27.35 | 20.85% |
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