Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$256.15 - $471.12$344.82
Multi-Stage$422.51 - $464.32$443.01
Blended Fair Value$393.91
Current Price$96.00
Upside310.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%13.06%5.000.000.000.005.005.005.007.003.201.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-28.57%118.75%126.05%-3.41%
Dividend Yield--3.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.44%1.45%1.49%2.55%3.43%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,303.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,247.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,055.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,660.653,537.912,122.74
Cash Retained (M)20,055.7420,055.7420,055.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,660.65-3,537.91-2,122.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,395.0916,517.8417,933.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.0010.3211.21
LTM Dividend per Share5.155.155.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.0010.3211.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.1515.4816.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.87%1.87%2.87%
Fair Value$256.15$344.82$471.12
Upside / Downside166.82%259.18%390.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,303.2428,832.9729,372.6229,922.3730,482.4031,052.9231,984.51
Payout Ratio29.14%41.31%53.48%65.66%77.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,247.5011,911.4315,709.6119,645.8023,723.8327,947.6329,585.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.87%1.87%2.87%
Year 1 PV (M)11,080.4211,190.2711,300.11
Year 2 PV (M)13,594.1013,864.9714,138.51
Year 3 PV (M)15,814.2016,289.2016,773.63
Year 4 PV (M)17,764.5718,479.5619,215.91
Year 5 PV (M)19,467.3720,451.6521,475.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)598,295.09628,545.22660,006.72
Equity Value (M)676,015.76708,820.87742,910.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$422.51$443.01$464.32
Upside / Downside340.11%361.47%383.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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