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Definitive Analysis

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Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (FFH.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,321.33 - $10,760.60$6,477.98
Multi-Stage$3,716.28 - $4,072.38$3,891.03
Blended Fair Value$5,184.50
Current Price$1,805.40
Upside187.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.49%5.35%15.6710.5810.7911.7511.9012.0012.2210.259.839.33
YoY Growth--48.08%-1.88%-8.16%-1.31%-0.83%-1.84%19.29%4.21%5.41%0.19%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.98%1.62%2.15%2.73%3.91%2.66%2.01%2.16%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,565.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,221.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)913.08570.68342.41
Cash Retained (M)4,221.804,221.804,221.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-913.08-570.68-342.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,308.723,651.133,879.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.1723.1723.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share142.82157.60167.46
LTM Dividend per Share14.8314.8314.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share142.82157.60167.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend157.65172.43182.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$4,321.33$6,477.98$10,760.60
Upside / Downside139.36%258.81%496.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,565.404,797.105,040.565,296.375,565.165,847.606,023.03
Payout Ratio7.53%24.02%40.52%57.01%73.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.601,152.312,042.223,019.484,090.695,262.845,571.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,058.051,068.221,078.38
Year 2 PV (M)1,721.781,755.031,788.59
Year 3 PV (M)2,337.482,405.502,474.84
Year 4 PV (M)2,907.703,021.073,137.73
Year 5 PV (M)3,434.883,603.103,777.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,634.0878,289.2482,086.22
Equity Value (M)86,093.9690,142.1594,343.61
Shares Outstanding (M)23.1723.1723.17
Fair Value$3,716.28$3,891.03$4,072.38
Upside / Downside105.84%115.52%125.57%

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