Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.27 - $44.61 | $31.83 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.28 - $19.92 | $19.09 |
| Blended Fair Value | $25.46 | |
| Current Price | $39.22 | |
| Upside | -35.09% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.34% | -4.03% | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.23% | -0.35% | 161.63% | 353.42% | -74.91% | 33.49% | 10,800.00% | -66.67% | -99.01% | -53.64% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.58% | 1.26% | 1.47% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 2.99% | 1.15% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 4.05% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,066.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 865.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,201.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 413.20 | 258.25 | 154.95 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,201.00 | 1,201.00 | 1,201.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -413.20 | -258.25 | -154.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 787.80 | 942.75 | 1,046.05 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.69% | 10.69% | 10.69% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $23.27 | $31.83 | $44.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -40.66% | -18.85% | 13.75% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,066.00 | 2,200.29 | 2,343.31 | 2,495.62 | 2,657.84 | 2,830.60 | 2,915.52 |
| Payout Ratio | 41.87% | 51.49% | 61.12% | 70.75% | 80.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 865.00 | 1,133.03 | 1,432.25 | 1,765.59 | 2,136.20 | 2,547.54 | 2,696.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.69% | 10.69% | 10.69% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,014.01 | 1,023.62 | 1,033.23 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,147.14 | 1,168.99 | 1,191.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,265.57 | 1,301.90 | 1,338.92 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,370.37 | 1,423.07 | 1,477.28 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,462.56 | 1,533.21 | 1,606.55 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 20,136.66 | 21,109.26 | 22,119.10 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,396.31 | 27,560.05 | 28,766.12 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 |
| Fair Value | $18.28 | $19.09 | $19.92 |
| Upside / Downside | -53.39% | -51.34% | -49.21% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 603551.SS | AUPU Intelligent Technology Corporation Limited | 4.75% | $0.55 | 70.57% |
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| ASSA.JK | PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk | 4.75% | $55.37 | 53.84% |
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| LMN.SW | lastminute.com N.V. | 4.75% | $0.62 | 39.82% |
| LREN3.SA | Lojas Renner S.A. | 4.75% | $0.64 | 45.84% |
| POT.NZ | Port of Tauranga Limited | 4.75% | $0.37 | 93.98% |
| 005720.KS | Nexen Corporation | 4.74% | $283.16 | 21.67% |
| 0DTK.L | Savencia S.A. | 4.74% | $2.97 | 20.78% |
| 1368.HK | Xtep International Holdings Limited | 4.74% | $0.25 | 35.82% |
| 3030.SR | Saudi Cement Company | 4.74% | $1.64 | 59.10% |
| EGIE3.SA | Engie Brasil Energia S.A. | 4.74% | $1.48 | 39.71% |
| 3570.TWO | Otsuka Information Technology Corp. | 4.73% | $7.97 | 55.25% |
| 600096.SS | Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. | 4.73% | $1.58 | 51.07% |
| CHE-UN.TO | Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund | 4.73% | $0.70 | 71.01% |
| GVH | Globavend Holdings Limited | 4.73% | $0.07 | 61.06% |
| MOUR.BR | Moury Construct S.A. | 4.73% | $27.35 | 20.85% |
| 1578.HK | Bank of Tianjin Co., Ltd. | 4.72% | $0.12 | 10.90% |
| 601598.SS | Sinotrans Limited | 4.72% | $0.29 | 56.81% |
| 6393.T | Yuken Kogyo Co., Ltd. | 4.72% | $152.08 | 45.60% |
| 7278.T | EXEDY Corporation | 4.72% | $264.78 | 76.11% |
| SHURB.XD | Shurgard Self Storage Ltd | 4.72% | $1.38 | 21.77% |
| TD | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | 4.72% | $4.46 | 37.31% |
| 0QLW.L | ALSO Holding AG | 4.71% | $10.07 | 55.86% |
| 111110.KS | Hojeon Limited | 4.71% | $377.81 | 20.16% |
| 3413.TW | Foxsemicon Integrated Technology Inc. | 4.71% | $13.29 | 62.47% |
| BVG.BK | BlueVenture Group Public Company Limited | 4.71% | $0.08 | 58.67% |
| DUNI.ST | Duni AB (publ) | 4.71% | $5.00 | 71.87% |
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| 013520.KS | Hwaseung Corporation Co.,Ltd. | 4.70% | $101.24 | 13.31% |
| 2S.BK | 2S Metal Public Company Limited | 4.70% | $0.11 | 76.54% |
| COLOR.BK | Salee Colour Public Company Limited | 4.70% | $0.05 | 65.65% |
| GJTL.JK | PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk | 4.70% | $49.82 | 16.37% |
| JHSF3.SA | JHSF Participações S.A. | 4.70% | $0.37 | 19.33% |
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| SNW.DE | Sanofi | 4.69% | $3.87 | 51.33% |
| WWL.WA | Wawel S.A. | 4.69% | $35.00 | 61.86% |
| 603299.SS | Jiang Su Suyan Jingshen Co.,Ltd. | 4.68% | $0.49 | 72.35% |
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| ABRD.ME | PJSC Abrau-Durso | 4.67% | $7.73 | 35.43% |
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