Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Darya-Varia Laboratoria Tbk (DVLA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,197.71 - $4,002.18$2,946.95
Multi-Stage$3,708.08 - $4,067.69$3,884.46
Blended Fair Value$3,415.71
Current Price$1,625.00
Upside110.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.22%17.25%108.00121.00116.00112.00107.00106.80106.6199.6434.8769.75
YoY Growth---10.74%4.31%3.57%4.67%0.19%0.18%7.00%185.71%-50.00%217.02%
Dividend Yield--7.61%8.18%5.89%4.07%4.51%5.09%5.05%4.99%2.05%5.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173,089.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123,200.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)49,889.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34,617.9221,636.2012,981.72
Cash Retained (M)49,889.6149,889.6149,889.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-34,617.92-21,636.20-12,981.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,271.6928,253.4136,907.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.001,120.001,120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.6425.2332.95
LTM Dividend per Share110.00110.00110.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.6425.2332.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend123.64135.23142.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$2,197.71$2,946.95$4,002.18
Upside / Downside35.24%81.35%146.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173,089.61176,310.08179,590.48182,931.91186,335.51189,802.44195,496.51
Payout Ratio71.18%74.94%78.71%82.47%86.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123,200.00132,129.61141,348.85150,865.42160,687.18170,822.20180,834.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)122,807.41124,025.01125,242.61
Year 2 PV (M)122,107.17124,540.48126,997.80
Year 3 PV (M)121,133.16124,771.98128,482.97
Year 4 PV (M)119,916.52124,743.45129,714.65
Year 5 PV (M)118,485.86124,477.24130,708.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,548,599.403,728,038.523,914,664.17
Equity Value (M)4,153,049.524,350,596.684,555,810.77
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.001,120.001,120.00
Fair Value$3,708.08$3,884.46$4,067.69
Upside / Downside128.19%139.04%150.32%

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