Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.35 - $33.64$23.83
Multi-Stage$14.37 - $15.68$15.01
Blended Fair Value$19.42
Current Price$30.02
Upside-35.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.28%3.61%0.390.340.320.320.320.320.320.280.280.28
YoY Growth--14.83%6.36%-0.12%0.35%0.71%0.09%14.07%0.70%0.36%0.23%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.28%1.96%2.91%2.38%1.94%2.46%1.92%2.38%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.382.111.27
Cash Retained (M)11.6211.6211.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.38-2.11-1.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.249.5110.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.0216.0216.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Fair Value$17.35$23.83$33.64
Upside / Downside-42.22%-20.62%12.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.8817.8718.9220.0321.2022.4523.12
Payout Ratio31.17%42.93%54.70%66.47%78.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.267.6710.3513.3116.5920.2021.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Year 1 PV (M)6.916.987.04
Year 2 PV (M)8.408.568.72
Year 3 PV (M)9.7310.0110.30
Year 4 PV (M)10.9211.3411.78
Year 5 PV (M)11.9812.5613.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)182.15191.00200.19
Equity Value (M)230.09240.45251.20
Shares Outstanding (M)16.0216.0216.02
Fair Value$14.37$15.01$15.68
Upside / Downside-52.15%-49.99%-47.76%

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