Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,249.05 - $3,494.83$2,824.96
Multi-Stage$3,770.11 - $4,137.58$3,950.32
Blended Fair Value$3,387.64
Current Price$4,700.00
Upside-27.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.96%-4.18%30.00100.00108.00112.0081.00118.0056.0056.0029.0018.00
YoY Growth---70.00%-7.41%-3.57%38.27%-31.36%110.71%0.00%93.10%61.11%-60.87%
Dividend Yield--0.68%1.92%2.16%1.98%1.16%2.39%0.88%1.62%0.91%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,845,236.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,770,984.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,074,252.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)769,047.20480,654.50288,392.70
Cash Retained (M)2,074,252.002,074,252.002,074,252.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-769,047.20-480,654.50-288,392.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,305,204.801,593,597.501,785,859.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,398.0016,398.0016,398.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.6097.18108.91
LTM Dividend per Share108.00108.00108.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.6097.18108.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend187.60205.18216.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Fair Value$2,249.05$2,824.96$3,494.83
Upside / Downside-52.15%-39.89%-25.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,845,236.003,864,871.363,884,606.993,904,443.403,924,381.093,944,420.604,062,753.22
Payout Ratio46.06%54.85%63.63%72.42%81.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,770,984.002,119,698.752,471,928.672,827,700.593,187,041.493,549,978.543,758,046.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,946,564.831,966,126.201,985,687.58
Year 2 PV (M)2,084,612.772,126,720.572,169,249.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,189,866.362,256,551.082,324,576.01
Year 4 PV (M)2,266,556.952,359,047.642,454,340.55
Year 5 PV (M)2,318,458.772,437,316.742,561,000.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,016,153.0453,631,544.1556,353,116.49
Equity Value (M)61,822,212.7364,777,306.4067,847,970.21
Shares Outstanding (M)16,398.0016,398.0016,398.00
Fair Value$3,770.11$3,950.32$4,137.58
Upside / Downside-19.78%-15.95%-11.97%

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