Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Viña Concha y Toro S.A. (CONCHATORO.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,753.39 - $8,821.68$4,445.89
Multi-Stage$2,993.68 - $3,283.18$3,135.71
Blended Fair Value$3,790.80
Current Price$1,054.00
Upside259.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%0.00%28.6443.5029.7366.1230.0225.9124.9527.9228.0224.70
YoY Growth---34.17%46.32%-55.04%120.25%15.89%3.82%-10.62%-0.38%13.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.36%3.64%2.92%5.21%2.43%2.40%1.75%2.17%2.50%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78,062.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32,166.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,895.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,612.409,757.755,854.65
Cash Retained (M)45,895.2545,895.2545,895.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,612.40-9,757.75-5,854.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,282.8536,137.5040,040.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)739.02739.02739.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.9848.9054.18
LTM Dividend per Share43.5343.5343.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.9848.9054.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend84.5092.4397.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Fair Value$2,753.39$4,445.89$8,821.68
Upside / Downside161.23%321.81%736.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78,062.0281,257.3184,583.4088,045.6391,649.5895,401.0598,263.08
Payout Ratio41.21%50.97%60.72%70.48%80.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32,166.7741,413.0751,362.4362,056.9173,540.8585,860.9590,893.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Year 1 PV (M)38,599.9338,974.3439,348.76
Year 2 PV (M)44,621.4545,491.3046,369.55
Year 3 PV (M)50,250.1451,726.6553,231.79
Year 4 PV (M)55,504.0757,689.1559,938.13
Year 5 PV (M)60,400.5563,387.3566,491.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,963,019.602,060,090.582,160,964.26
Equity Value (M)2,212,395.732,317,359.372,426,343.63
Shares Outstanding (M)739.02739.02739.02
Fair Value$2,993.68$3,135.71$3,283.18
Upside / Downside184.03%197.51%211.50%

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