Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $746.00 - $1,434.23 | $1,344.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $228.17 - $249.53 | $238.65 |
| Blended Fair Value | $791.37 | |
| Current Price | $82.00 | |
| Upside | 865.08% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.64% | 9.29% | 5.02 | 4.03 | 4.08 | 4.10 | 4.11 | 4.86 | 5.47 | 5.16 | 4.13 | 2.06 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 24.49% | -1.22% | -0.45% | -0.26% | -15.44% | -11.18% | 6.00% | 25.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.21% | 5.37% | 7.10% | 6.45% | 6.52% | 8.72% | 9.16% | 7.06% | 6.45% | 3.50% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,151.35 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,269.82 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,881.53 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,230.27 | 768.92 | 461.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,881.53 | 1,881.53 | 1,881.53 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,230.27 | -768.92 | -461.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 651.26 | 1,112.61 | 1,420.17 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 852.97 | 852.97 | 852.97 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.76 | 1.30 | 1.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.01 | 5.01 | 5.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.76 | 1.30 | 1.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.77 | 6.31 | 6.67 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $746.00 | $1,344.08 | $1,434.23 |
| Upside / Downside | 809.76% | 1,539.12% | 1,649.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,151.35 | 6,551.18 | 6,977.01 | 7,430.52 | 7,913.50 | 8,427.88 | 8,680.71 |
| Payout Ratio | 69.41% | 73.53% | 77.65% | 81.77% | 85.88% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,269.82 | 4,817.10 | 5,417.49 | 6,075.57 | 6,796.32 | 7,585.09 | 8,029.66 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,488.39 | 4,530.93 | 4,573.48 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,703.35 | 4,792.93 | 4,883.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,914.74 | 5,055.83 | 5,199.59 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,122.62 | 5,319.62 | 5,522.25 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,327.01 | 5,584.31 | 5,851.45 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 170,066.31 | 178,280.57 | 186,809.22 |
| Equity Value (M) | 194,622.42 | 203,564.20 | 212,839.35 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 852.97 | 852.97 | 852.97 |
| Fair Value | $228.17 | $238.65 | $249.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 178.26% | 191.04% | 204.30% |
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