Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Compañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A. (CCU.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,423.06 - $72,267.02$26,365.13
Multi-Stage$11,060.17 - $12,111.90$11,576.27
Blended Fair Value$18,970.70
Current Price$6,050.50
Upside213.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.81%2.28%221.37177.49428.47741.91276.41590.08202.50203.32188.96179.02
YoY Growth--24.72%-58.58%-42.25%168.40%-53.16%191.39%-0.40%7.60%5.55%1.27%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.04%7.00%12.60%4.38%10.05%2.08%2.31%2.27%2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136,209.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88,216.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,993.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,241.8417,026.1510,215.69
Cash Retained (M)47,993.2047,993.2047,993.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,241.84-17,026.15-10,215.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,751.3630,967.0537,777.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.50369.50369.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share56.1683.81102.24
LTM Dividend per Share238.74238.74238.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share56.1683.81102.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend294.90322.55340.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate3.97%4.97%5.97%
Fair Value$13,423.06$26,365.13$72,267.02
Upside / Downside121.85%335.75%1,094.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136,209.20142,977.80150,082.75157,540.77165,369.40173,587.05178,794.66
Payout Ratio64.77%69.81%74.86%79.91%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88,216.0099,815.75112,350.52125,884.58140,486.29156,228.34165,385.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate3.97%4.97%5.97%
Year 1 PV (M)93,046.2493,941.1894,836.12
Year 2 PV (M)97,628.0499,515.09101,420.20
Year 3 PV (M)101,969.84104,940.54107,968.38
Year 4 PV (M)106,079.85110,220.31114,480.81
Year 5 PV (M)109,966.03115,357.13120,957.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,578,076.833,753,492.683,935,721.88
Equity Value (M)4,086,766.844,277,466.934,475,385.03
Shares Outstanding (M)369.50369.50369.50
Fair Value$11,060.17$11,576.27$12,111.90
Upside / Downside82.80%91.33%100.18%

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