Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $338.39 - $1,383.94 | $580.16 |
| Multi-Stage | $271.03 - $296.00 | $283.29 |
| Blended Fair Value | $431.72 | |
| Current Price | $85.44 | |
| Upside | 405.29% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.83% | 8.23% | 6.13 | 8.80 | 6.20 | 2.03 | 2.71 | 3.84 | 4.26 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 3.11 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -30.37% | 41.89% | 205.43% | -25.01% | -29.37% | -10.04% | 13.17% | 9.57% | 10.64% | 11.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.32% | 8.25% | 6.15% | 2.58% | 3.06% | 8.14% | 6.12% | 4.27% | 4.02% | 3.85% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,020.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6,430.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 590.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,404.00 | 877.50 | 526.50 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 590.00 | 590.00 | 590.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,404.00 | -877.50 | -526.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -814.00 | -287.50 | 63.50 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 616.94 | 616.94 | 616.94 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.32 | -0.47 | 0.10 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 10.42 | 10.42 | 10.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.32 | -0.47 | 0.10 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.10 | 9.96 | 10.53 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.25% | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| Growth Rate | 4.44% | 5.44% | 6.44% |
| Fair Value | $338.39 | $580.16 | $1,383.94 |
| Upside / Downside | 296.06% | 579.03% | 1,519.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,020.00 | 7,401.94 | 7,804.66 | 8,229.29 | 8,677.03 | 9,149.12 | 9,423.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 91.60% | 91.28% | 90.96% | 90.64% | 90.32% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6,430.00 | 6,756.22 | 7,098.91 | 7,458.88 | 7,837.01 | 8,234.21 | 8,716.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.25% | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| Growth Rate | 4.44% | 5.44% | 6.44% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 6,239.75 | 6,299.49 | 6,359.24 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6,055.05 | 6,171.56 | 6,289.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,875.75 | 6,046.15 | 6,219.81 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,701.68 | 5,923.21 | 6,151.13 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,532.71 | 5,802.70 | 6,083.13 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 137,802.75 | 144,527.47 | 151,512.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 167,207.68 | 174,770.57 | 182,614.67 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 616.94 | 616.94 | 616.94 |
| Fair Value | $271.03 | $283.29 | $296.00 |
| Upside / Downside | 217.21% | 231.56% | 246.44% |
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