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Definitive Analysis

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Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,469.11 - $4,739.87$3,378.82
Multi-Stage$2,170.38 - $2,372.35$2,269.52
Blended Fair Value$2,824.17
Current Price$5,399.27
Upside-47.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%35.660.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,044.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,230.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,814.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,008.80630.50378.30
Cash Retained (M)3,814.003,814.003,814.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,008.80-630.50-378.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,805.203,183.503,435.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.9232.9232.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share85.2096.69104.35
LTM Dividend per Share37.3637.3637.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share85.2096.69104.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend122.56134.05141.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Fair Value$2,469.11$3,378.82$4,739.87
Upside / Downside-54.27%-37.42%-12.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,044.005,313.675,597.765,897.046,212.316,544.456,740.78
Payout Ratio24.39%37.51%50.63%63.75%76.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,230.001,993.072,834.223,759.614,775.855,890.006,235.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Year 1 PV (M)1,802.451,819.721,837.00
Year 2 PV (M)2,318.012,362.652,407.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,780.772,861.492,943.75
Year 4 PV (M)3,194.583,318.823,446.64
Year 5 PV (M)3,563.043,737.073,917.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,798.6660,621.8163,554.22
Equity Value (M)71,457.5174,721.5678,107.17
Shares Outstanding (M)32.9232.9232.92
Fair Value$2,170.38$2,269.52$2,372.35
Upside / Downside-59.80%-57.97%-56.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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