Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $33.89 - $53.73 | $42.94 |
| Multi-Stage | $63.29 - $69.39 | $66.28 |
| Blended Fair Value | $54.61 | |
| Current Price | $24.18 | |
| Upside | 125.85% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -1.42% | -0.15% | 1.26 | 1.51 | 2.61 | 3.51 | 1.56 | 1.35 | 2.24 | 1.03 | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -16.57% | -42.15% | -25.67% | 125.93% | 14.91% | -39.66% | 118.30% | 78.71% | -29.27% | -36.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.21% | 5.24% | 8.72% | 12.34% | 4.80% | 6.15% | 8.68% | 4.60% | 3.61% | 6.57% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 16,916.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 14,078.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,838.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3,383.20 | 2,114.50 | 1,268.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,838.00 | 2,838.00 | 2,838.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3,383.20 | -2,114.50 | -1,268.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -545.20 | 723.50 | 1,569.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 5,080.00 | 5,080.00 | 5,080.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.11 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.77 | 2.77 | 2.77 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.11 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.66 | 2.91 | 3.08 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.21% | 7.21% | 7.21% |
| Growth Rate | -0.61% | 0.39% | 1.39% |
| Fair Value | $33.89 | $42.94 | $53.73 |
| Upside / Downside | 40.16% | 77.58% | 122.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 16,916.00 | 16,982.60 | 17,049.46 | 17,116.59 | 17,183.98 | 17,251.64 | 17,769.18 |
| Payout Ratio | 83.22% | 84.58% | 85.93% | 87.29% | 88.64% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 14,078.00 | 14,363.61 | 14,651.25 | 14,940.93 | 15,232.67 | 15,526.47 | 16,436.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.21% | 7.21% | 7.21% |
| Growth Rate | -0.61% | 0.39% | 1.39% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 13,264.66 | 13,398.11 | 13,531.57 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 12,495.09 | 12,747.78 | 13,003.00 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 11,767.25 | 12,126.00 | 12,491.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 11,079.13 | 11,531.77 | 11,998.14 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10,428.81 | 10,964.10 | 11,521.14 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 262,469.55 | 275,941.44 | 289,960.93 |
| Equity Value (M) | 321,504.49 | 336,709.21 | 352,506.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 5,080.00 | 5,080.00 | 5,080.00 |
| Fair Value | $63.29 | $66.28 | $69.39 |
| Upside / Downside | 161.74% | 174.12% | 186.98% |
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