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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (BDMS-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.96 - $204.02$89.91
Multi-Stage$27.36 - $29.91$28.61
Blended Fair Value$59.26
Current Price$20.80
Upside184.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.88%13.63%0.700.650.500.800.300.440.350.310.350.22
YoY Growth--7.50%30.21%-37.64%168.67%-31.69%24.07%12.91%-11.13%56.49%14.99%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.28%1.69%3.21%1.38%2.31%1.41%1.33%1.65%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,414.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,920.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,494.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,283.002,051.871,231.12
Cash Retained (M)4,494.194,494.194,494.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,283.00-2,051.87-1,231.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.192,442.323,263.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,892.0015,892.0015,892.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Fair Value$41.96$89.91$204.02
Upside / Downside101.73%332.25%880.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,414.9917,361.3118,362.1719,420.7420,540.3321,724.4622,376.20
Payout Ratio72.62%76.10%79.57%83.05%86.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,920.8013,211.4614,611.3016,128.6417,772.3719,552.0220,697.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Year 1 PV (M)12,250.0912,367.0212,483.95
Year 2 PV (M)12,562.2112,803.1813,046.43
Year 3 PV (M)12,857.7113,229.4213,608.23
Year 4 PV (M)13,137.1113,645.9214,169.37
Year 5 PV (M)13,400.9214,052.8214,729.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)370,581.84388,609.07407,331.13
Equity Value (M)434,789.88454,707.43475,368.95
Shares Outstanding (M)15,892.0015,892.0015,892.00
Fair Value$27.36$28.61$29.91
Upside / Downside31.53%37.56%43.81%

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