Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,169.16 - $8,809.39$5,911.22
Multi-Stage$5,005.42 - $5,491.51$5,243.88
Blended Fair Value$5,577.55
Current Price$1,285.00
Upside334.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.51%4.10%49.8943.3916.930.001.4940.0143.1437.3226.3815.90
YoY Growth--14.97%156.29%0.00%-100.00%-96.27%-7.25%15.60%41.49%65.91%-52.39%
Dividend Yield--5.64%2.91%1.38%0.00%0.09%4.94%1.88%1.11%1.21%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,227,615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)751,833.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,475,782.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645,523.00403,451.88242,071.13
Cash Retained (M)2,475,782.002,475,782.002,475,782.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-645,523.00-403,451.88-242,071.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,830,259.002,072,330.132,233,710.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,034.4414,034.4414,034.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share130.41147.66159.16
LTM Dividend per Share53.5753.5753.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share130.41147.66159.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend183.98201.23212.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.51%3.51%4.51%
Fair Value$4,169.16$5,911.22$8,809.39
Upside / Downside224.45%360.02%585.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,227,615.003,340,929.343,458,221.893,579,632.323,705,305.213,835,390.183,950,451.88
Payout Ratio23.29%36.64%49.98%63.32%76.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)751,833.001,223,949.821,728,289.902,266,533.892,840,440.753,451,851.163,654,167.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.51%3.51%4.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,132,462.291,143,509.541,154,556.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,479,574.581,508,582.091,537,871.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,795,323.111,848,377.831,902,467.63
Year 4 PV (M)2,081,738.982,164,165.392,249,015.66
Year 5 PV (M)2,340,737.632,457,157.262,578,163.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)61,418,397.4464,473,121.4467,648,198.69
Equity Value (M)70,248,234.0373,594,913.5677,070,273.69
Shares Outstanding (M)14,034.4414,034.4414,034.44
Fair Value$5,005.42$5,243.88$5,491.51
Upside / Downside289.53%308.08%327.35%

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