Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $333.25 - $921.93 | $863.98 |
| Multi-Stage | $134.10 - $146.47 | $140.17 |
| Blended Fair Value | $502.08 | |
| Current Price | $33.26 | |
| Upside | 1,409.56% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.39% | 8.05% | 2.68 | 3.59 | 2.02 | 1.03 | 2.87 | 3.02 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 1.72 | 1.73 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -25.39% | 77.32% | 97.21% | -64.21% | -5.08% | 68.13% | 6.09% | -1.69% | -0.59% | 40.37% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.64% | 10.95% | 6.14% | 3.88% | 11.20% | 11.29% | 5.97% | 4.72% | 4.57% | 4.28% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8,998.88 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 8,273.74 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 725.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,799.78 | 1,124.86 | 674.92 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 725.14 | 725.14 | 725.14 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,799.78 | -1,124.86 | -674.92 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -1,074.64 | -399.72 | 50.22 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,941.20 | 1,941.20 | 1,941.20 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.55 | -0.21 | 0.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.26 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.55 | -0.21 | 0.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.71 | 4.06 | 4.29 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $333.25 | $863.98 | $921.93 |
| Upside / Downside | 901.95% | 2,497.66% | 2,671.89% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8,998.88 | 9,583.81 | 10,206.75 | 10,870.19 | 11,576.76 | 12,329.25 | 12,699.12 |
| Payout Ratio | 91.94% | 91.55% | 91.17% | 90.78% | 90.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 8,273.74 | 8,774.31 | 9,305.00 | 9,867.61 | 10,464.04 | 11,096.32 | 11,746.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 8,148.12 | 8,225.35 | 8,302.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 8,024.25 | 8,177.09 | 8,331.37 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 7,902.13 | 8,128.97 | 8,360.11 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 7,781.72 | 8,080.98 | 8,388.79 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 7,663.00 | 8,033.13 | 8,417.42 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 220,794.72 | 231,459.19 | 242,531.81 |
| Equity Value (M) | 260,313.94 | 272,104.71 | 284,332.09 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,941.20 | 1,941.20 | 1,941.20 |
| Fair Value | $134.10 | $140.17 | $146.47 |
| Upside / Downside | 303.18% | 321.45% | 340.39% |
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