Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,861.78 - $24,993.70$15,863.23
Multi-Stage$7,670.65 - $8,382.73$8,020.23
Blended Fair Value$11,941.73
Current Price$6,580.00
Upside81.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.21%123.76%147.740.4513.080.000.008.221.583.652.390.00
YoY Growth--32,455.02%-96.53%0.00%0.00%-100.00%419.18%-56.61%52.87%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.01%2.43%0.00%0.00%11.15%1.16%2.34%2.56%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323,482.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,124.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)278,357.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64,696.4140,435.2624,261.15
Cash Retained (M)278,357.58278,357.58278,357.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-64,696.41-40,435.26-24,261.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)213,661.17237,922.32254,096.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)613.30613.30613.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share348.38387.94414.31
LTM Dividend per Share73.5873.5873.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share348.38387.94414.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend421.96461.51487.89
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,861.78$15,863.23$24,993.70
Upside / Downside65.07%141.08%279.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323,482.05344,508.38366,901.43390,750.02416,148.77443,198.44456,494.39
Payout Ratio13.95%29.16%44.37%59.58%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,124.47100,457.56162,793.30232,808.25311,237.34398,878.60422,257.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90,799.0191,659.6692,520.31
Year 2 PV (M)132,994.43135,527.60138,084.67
Year 3 PV (M)171,907.08176,841.92181,870.30
Year 4 PV (M)207,723.47215,711.93223,928.61
Year 5 PV (M)240,620.76252,242.83264,309.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,860,362.744,046,819.704,240,412.81
Equity Value (M)4,704,407.494,918,803.645,141,126.42
Shares Outstanding (M)613.30613.30613.30
Fair Value$7,670.65$8,020.23$8,382.73
Upside / Downside16.58%21.89%27.40%

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