Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $90.04 - $238.86 | $137.68 |
| Multi-Stage | $62.18 - $67.91 | $65.00 |
| Blended Fair Value | $101.34 | |
| Current Price | $51.59 | |
| Upside | 96.43% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.88% | 15.21% | 1.23 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.58% | 5.96% | 6.47% | 4.24% | 30.22% | -13.94% | 20.96% | 35.91% | 17.35% | 54.99% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.95% | 3.14% | 3.88% | 2.53% | 2.59% | 3.62% | 3.13% | 2.46% | 2.30% | 3.42% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 29,646.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 9,478.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 20,168.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5,929.20 | 3,705.75 | 2,223.45 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 20,168.00 | 20,168.00 | 20,168.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5,929.20 | -3,705.75 | -2,223.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 14,238.80 | 16,462.25 | 17,944.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 7,723.30 | 7,723.30 | 7,723.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.84 | 2.13 | 2.32 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.84 | 2.13 | 2.32 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.07 | 3.36 | 3.55 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $90.04 | $137.68 | $238.86 |
| Upside / Downside | 74.53% | 166.88% | 362.99% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 29,646.00 | 31,572.99 | 33,625.23 | 35,810.87 | 38,138.58 | 40,617.59 | 41,836.12 |
| Payout Ratio | 31.97% | 43.58% | 55.18% | 66.79% | 78.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 9,478.00 | 13,758.39 | 18,555.20 | 23,917.45 | 29,898.40 | 36,555.83 | 38,698.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 12,492.63 | 12,611.04 | 12,729.46 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 15,298.11 | 15,589.49 | 15,883.63 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 17,904.95 | 18,418.94 | 18,942.67 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 20,323.21 | 21,104.78 | 21,908.68 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 22,562.49 | 23,652.26 | 24,783.75 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 391,684.15 | 410,602.64 | 430,245.18 |
| Equity Value (M) | 480,265.52 | 501,979.15 | 524,493.36 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 7,723.30 | 7,723.30 | 7,723.30 |
| Fair Value | $62.18 | $65.00 | $67.91 |
| Upside / Downside | 20.53% | 25.98% | 31.64% |
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