Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited (AP-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$178.26 - $291.62$273.29
Multi-Stage$47.38 - $51.86$49.58
Blended Fair Value$161.44
Current Price$6.25
Upside2,482.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.82%11.04%0.700.650.500.450.400.400.350.300.300.26
YoY Growth--7.59%30.08%11.06%12.48%0.00%14.34%16.61%0.00%15.40%5.91%
Dividend Yield--9.26%6.02%4.16%4.09%4.88%10.53%4.93%3.80%4.17%4.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,613.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,887.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,725.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)922.60576.63345.98
Cash Retained (M)2,725.512,725.512,725.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-922.60-576.63-345.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,802.902,148.882,379.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,145.903,145.903,145.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$178.26$273.29$291.62
Upside / Downside2,752.09%4,272.69%4,565.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,613.024,912.875,232.205,572.305,934.506,320.246,509.85
Payout Ratio40.92%50.73%60.55%70.37%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,887.522,492.483,168.113,921.054,758.485,688.216,021.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,325.052,347.092,369.13
Year 2 PV (M)2,756.792,809.302,862.31
Year 3 PV (M)3,182.793,274.153,367.25
Year 4 PV (M)3,603.093,741.663,884.18
Year 5 PV (M)4,017.764,211.824,413.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,151.76139,583.04146,260.46
Equity Value (M)149,037.25155,967.07163,156.64
Shares Outstanding (M)3,145.903,145.903,145.90
Fair Value$47.38$49.58$51.86
Upside / Downside658.00%693.25%729.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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