Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

ARCS Company Limited (9948.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,340.47 - $42,784.75$17,038.96
Multi-Stage$6,581.89 - $7,215.58$6,892.82
Blended Fair Value$11,965.89
Current Price$3,025.00
Upside295.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.31%6.00%72.8860.6060.3759.4752.2453.6749.8549.2643.2244.29
YoY Growth--20.27%0.37%1.53%13.83%-2.66%7.66%1.20%13.97%-2.43%8.88%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.04%2.57%3.07%2.19%2.49%2.35%1.67%1.80%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,777.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,995.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,782.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,355.401,472.13883.28
Cash Retained (M)7,782.007,782.007,782.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,355.40-1,472.13-883.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,426.606,309.886,898.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.9853.9853.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share100.53116.89127.80
LTM Dividend per Share74.0174.0174.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share100.53116.89127.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend174.54190.90201.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$8,340.47$17,038.96$42,784.75
Upside / Downside175.72%463.27%1,314.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,777.0012,366.2612,985.0113,634.7114,316.9315,033.2715,484.27
Payout Ratio33.92%45.14%56.35%67.57%78.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,995.005,581.847,317.479,212.8111,279.5113,529.9514,322.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,206.905,256.965,307.03
Year 2 PV (M)6,367.446,490.476,614.68
Year 3 PV (M)7,478.217,696.007,917.98
Year 4 PV (M)8,540.778,874.029,216.93
Year 5 PV (M)9,556.6310,024.9910,511.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)318,144.10333,735.94349,933.18
Equity Value (M)355,294.04372,078.38389,501.33
Shares Outstanding (M)53.9853.9853.98
Fair Value$6,581.89$6,892.82$7,215.58
Upside / Downside117.58%127.86%138.53%

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