Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chuo Warehouse Co.,Ltd. (9319.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,035.25 - $1,640.84$1,311.39
Multi-Stage$1,305.34 - $1,428.83$1,365.93
Blended Fair Value$1,338.66
Current Price$1,402.00
Upside-4.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.36%3.51%32.6229.7226.8823.1323.0322.8725.1423.0623.0623.08
YoY Growth--9.77%10.55%16.21%0.46%0.71%-9.05%9.04%0.00%-0.11%-0.12%
Dividend Yield--2.38%2.26%2.46%2.38%2.20%2.31%2.39%1.85%2.12%2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,843.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)672.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,171.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.74230.46138.28
Cash Retained (M)1,171.321,171.321,171.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.74-230.46-138.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)802.58940.861,033.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share43.3450.8055.78
LTM Dividend per Share36.3136.3136.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share43.3450.8055.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.6487.1192.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$1,035.25$1,311.39$1,640.84
Upside / Downside-26.16%-6.46%17.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,843.691,889.901,937.261,985.812,035.582,086.602,149.19
Payout Ratio36.47%47.17%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)672.37891.561,121.311,362.021,614.091,877.941,988.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)807.63815.58823.54
Year 2 PV (M)920.13938.35956.75
Year 3 PV (M)1,012.441,042.661,073.47
Year 4 PV (M)1,086.861,130.331,175.09
Year 5 PV (M)1,145.491,203.041,262.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,201.9620,166.6421,169.70
Equity Value (M)24,174.5225,296.6026,461.42
Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
Fair Value$1,305.34$1,365.93$1,428.83
Upside / Downside-6.89%-2.57%1.91%

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