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Definitive Analysis

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ZERO Co., Ltd. (9028.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,739.12 - $82,972.57$62,730.32
Multi-Stage$10,275.79 - $11,242.04$10,750.07
Blended Fair Value$36,740.19
Current Price$3,110.00
Upside1,081.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS20.28%0.00%88.4750.1937.0353.0334.8435.140.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--76.27%35.52%-30.17%52.21%-0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.84%2.11%2.41%5.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,041.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,345.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,696.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,408.20880.13528.08
Cash Retained (M)4,696.004,696.004,696.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,408.20-880.13-528.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,287.803,815.884,167.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.8816.8816.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share194.82226.11246.97
LTM Dividend per Share138.95138.95138.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share194.82226.11246.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend333.77365.06385.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21,739.12$62,730.32$82,972.57
Upside / Downside599.01%1,917.05%2,567.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,041.007,498.677,986.088,505.179,058.019,646.789,936.18
Payout Ratio33.30%44.64%55.98%67.32%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,345.003,347.704,470.845,725.857,125.128,682.109,190.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,095.853,125.193,154.54
Year 2 PV (M)3,823.453,896.283,969.79
Year 3 PV (M)4,528.354,658.344,790.80
Year 4 PV (M)5,211.055,411.455,617.58
Year 5 PV (M)5,872.076,155.696,450.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)150,887.67158,175.60165,742.46
Equity Value (M)173,418.43181,422.55189,725.33
Shares Outstanding (M)16.8816.8816.88
Fair Value$10,275.79$10,750.07$11,242.04
Upside / Downside230.41%245.66%261.48%

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