Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ryoden Corporation (8084.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,085.79 - $5,467.98$4,093.17
Multi-Stage$4,267.23 - $4,677.38$4,468.43
Blended Fair Value$4,280.80
Current Price$3,085.00
Upside38.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.24%9.02%113.5287.2264.2354.8555.9155.8653.8443.8647.8649.79
YoY Growth--30.15%35.79%17.10%-1.89%0.08%3.76%22.75%-8.36%-3.88%4.03%
Dividend Yield--4.05%3.15%2.92%3.46%3.44%3.82%3.31%2.43%3.07%3.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,937.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,299.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,638.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)987.40617.13370.28
Cash Retained (M)2,638.002,638.002,638.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-987.40-617.13-370.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,650.602,020.882,267.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.7521.7521.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share75.8992.91104.26
LTM Dividend per Share105.70105.70105.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share75.8992.91104.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend181.59198.61209.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Fair Value$3,085.79$4,093.17$5,467.98
Upside / Downside0.03%32.68%77.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,937.005,063.485,193.205,326.245,462.705,602.645,770.72
Payout Ratio46.57%55.25%63.94%72.63%81.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,299.002,797.743,320.533,868.274,441.905,042.385,337.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)2,576.252,601.622,626.99
Year 2 PV (M)2,815.592,871.312,927.57
Year 3 PV (M)3,020.363,110.463,202.33
Year 4 PV (M)3,193.683,321.333,452.77
Year 5 PV (M)3,338.403,506.023,680.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,867.9681,777.7285,842.98
Equity Value (M)92,812.2597,188.47101,732.96
Shares Outstanding (M)21.7521.7521.75
Fair Value$4,267.23$4,468.43$4,677.38
Upside / Downside38.32%44.84%51.62%

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