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Definitive Analysis

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Aichi Tokei Denki Co., Ltd. (7723.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,645.96 - $6,561.05$4,865.74
Multi-Stage$3,281.24 - $3,590.74$3,433.14
Blended Fair Value$4,149.44
Current Price$2,798.00
Upside48.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.12%7.90%67.7264.6046.7943.3539.9739.9743.1536.6633.3433.34
YoY Growth--4.83%38.06%7.95%8.46%0.00%-7.38%17.73%9.94%0.00%5.34%
Dividend Yield--2.98%2.81%3.10%3.20%2.79%2.67%3.08%2.61%2.64%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,905.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,652.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)781.00488.13292.88
Cash Retained (M)3,652.003,652.003,652.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-781.00-488.13-292.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,871.003,163.883,359.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.3915.3915.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share186.59205.62218.31
LTM Dividend per Share16.4416.4416.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share186.59205.62218.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend203.03222.07234.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$3,645.96$4,865.74$6,561.05
Upside / Downside30.31%73.90%134.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,905.004,102.744,310.504,528.774,758.104,999.045,149.01
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.00951.141,719.342,562.903,487.484,499.134,762.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)857.55865.79874.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,397.611,424.601,451.85
Year 3 PV (M)1,878.311,932.981,988.70
Year 4 PV (M)2,304.412,394.272,486.73
Year 5 PV (M)2,680.332,811.612,947.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,369.1243,395.3745,500.25
Equity Value (M)50,487.3152,824.6155,249.54
Shares Outstanding (M)15.3915.3915.39
Fair Value$3,281.24$3,433.14$3,590.74
Upside / Downside17.27%22.70%28.33%

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