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Definitive Analysis

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Advan Group Co., Ltd. (7463.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,036.09 - $5,543.35$4,075.33
Multi-Stage$5,200.41 - $5,719.08$5,454.74
Blended Fair Value$4,765.04
Current Price$880.00
Upside441.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.67%7.04%40.8352.8243.9934.4533.0635.7934.2331.7342.9020.42
YoY Growth---22.70%20.07%27.69%4.22%-7.64%4.57%7.88%-26.05%110.13%-1.23%
Dividend Yield--4.97%5.40%4.76%4.36%3.54%2.67%3.19%3.28%3.76%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,476.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,426.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,050.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,495.38934.61560.77
Cash Retained (M)6,050.196,050.196,050.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,495.38-934.61-560.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,554.815,115.585,489.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.1235.1235.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share129.70145.67156.31
LTM Dividend per Share40.6340.6340.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share129.70145.67156.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend170.32186.29196.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.67%1.67%2.67%
Fair Value$3,036.09$4,075.33$5,543.35
Upside / Downside245.01%363.11%529.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,476.897,601.667,728.517,857.487,988.618,121.928,365.57
Payout Ratio19.08%33.27%47.45%61.63%75.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,426.702,528.703,667.094,842.776,056.667,309.727,738.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.67%1.67%2.67%
Year 1 PV (M)2,355.082,378.472,401.87
Year 2 PV (M)3,180.803,244.313,308.44
Year 3 PV (M)3,912.164,029.904,149.99
Year 4 PV (M)4,556.844,740.624,929.90
Year 5 PV (M)5,121.995,381.495,651.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)163,503.16171,786.96180,403.16
Equity Value (M)182,630.03191,561.75200,844.77
Shares Outstanding (M)35.1235.1235.12
Fair Value$5,200.41$5,454.74$5,719.08
Upside / Downside490.96%519.86%549.90%

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