Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nagaileben Co., Ltd. (7447.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$769.06 - $1,189.54$964.08
Multi-Stage$1,834.31 - $2,017.29$1,924.01
Blended Fair Value$1,444.05
Current Price$2,034.00
Upside-29.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.09%0.99%60.7761.9762.2863.4363.4364.1964.1964.1853.51106.98
YoY Growth---1.94%-0.50%-1.82%0.01%-1.18%0.00%0.01%19.95%-49.98%94.21%
Dividend Yield--2.99%2.90%2.74%3.16%2.71%2.38%2.49%2.31%1.99%4.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,572.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,888.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)684.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)514.57321.61192.96
Cash Retained (M)684.84684.84684.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-514.57-321.61-192.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)170.27363.24491.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.0831.0831.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.4811.6915.83
LTM Dividend per Share60.7660.7660.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.4811.6915.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.2472.4476.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.10%-1.10%-0.10%
Fair Value$769.06$964.08$1,189.54
Upside / Downside-62.19%-52.60%-41.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,572.842,544.622,516.702,489.092,461.792,434.782,507.82
Payout Ratio73.38%76.71%80.03%83.35%86.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,888.001,951.862,014.092,074.732,133.792,191.302,319.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.10%-1.10%-0.10%
Year 1 PV (M)1,817.021,835.581,854.14
Year 2 PV (M)1,745.431,781.261,817.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,673.761,725.571,778.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,602.491,668.971,737.50
Year 5 PV (M)1,531.991,611.851,695.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,630.9651,165.8453,805.35
Equity Value (M)57,001.6459,789.0862,687.90
Shares Outstanding (M)31.0831.0831.08
Fair Value$1,834.31$1,924.01$2,017.29
Upside / Downside-9.82%-5.41%-0.82%

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