Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (7276.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,310.10 - $4,121.82$3,072.75
Multi-Stage$3,900.52 - $4,286.16$4,089.64
Blended Fair Value$3,581.19
Current Price$1,724.50
Upside107.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.21%14.15%58.2544.2729.9629.9522.1957.6555.4138.7922.1623.28
YoY Growth--31.60%47.77%0.01%35.01%-61.51%4.03%42.87%75.02%-4.79%50.02%
Dividend Yield--3.38%2.00%1.16%1.39%0.64%2.66%1.88%1.06%0.77%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,064.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,807.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,812.806,133.003,679.80
Cash Retained (M)32,807.0032,807.0032,807.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,812.80-6,133.00-3,679.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,994.2026,674.0029,127.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)289.92289.92289.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.3192.00100.47
LTM Dividend per Share56.0756.0756.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.3192.00100.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend135.39148.08156.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Fair Value$2,310.10$3,072.75$4,121.82
Upside / Downside33.96%78.18%139.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,064.0049,868.3250,685.8251,516.7252,361.2553,219.6254,816.21
Payout Ratio33.13%44.51%55.88%67.25%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,257.0022,195.1028,323.5234,646.9141,170.0047,897.6650,704.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)20,628.1920,833.1621,038.13
Year 2 PV (M)24,465.5624,954.1825,447.63
Year 3 PV (M)27,814.8228,652.2329,506.28
Year 4 PV (M)30,718.2631,957.5133,233.87
Year 5 PV (M)33,214.9834,898.3036,649.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)994,006.361,044,382.161,096,780.00
Equity Value (M)1,130,848.171,185,677.541,242,655.10
Shares Outstanding (M)289.92289.92289.92
Fair Value$3,900.52$4,089.64$4,286.16
Upside / Downside126.18%137.15%148.55%

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