Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

T.RAD Co., Ltd. (7236.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,425.23 - $42,119.15$26,851.72
Multi-Stage$23,142.84 - $25,401.82$24,250.95
Blended Fair Value$25,551.34
Current Price$4,420.00
Upside478.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.75%6.63%194.1881.69203.3643.7255.86106.58123.7074.2275.4663.79
YoY Growth--137.71%-59.83%365.12%-21.73%-47.59%-13.84%66.67%-1.65%18.29%-37.60%
Dividend Yield--4.39%2.20%11.03%1.67%2.09%8.01%6.32%2.16%2.13%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,969.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,545.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,424.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,193.80746.13447.68
Cash Retained (M)4,424.004,424.004,424.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,193.80-746.13-447.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,230.203,677.883,976.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.436.436.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share502.60572.25618.69
LTM Dividend per Share240.39240.39240.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share502.60572.25618.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend742.99812.64859.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$18,425.23$26,851.72$42,119.15
Upside / Downside316.86%507.51%852.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,969.006,172.436,382.796,600.326,825.277,057.887,269.62
Payout Ratio25.88%38.71%51.53%64.35%77.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,545.002,389.163,289.074,247.545,267.526,352.096,724.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)2,220.862,242.552,264.24
Year 2 PV (M)2,842.012,897.792,954.10
Year 3 PV (M)3,411.673,512.593,615.49
Year 4 PV (M)3,932.904,088.784,249.25
Year 5 PV (M)4,408.594,628.094,856.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,923.67138,491.77145,318.91
Equity Value (M)148,739.71155,861.57163,258.22
Shares Outstanding (M)6.436.436.43
Fair Value$23,142.84$24,250.95$25,401.82
Upside / Downside423.59%448.66%474.70%

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