Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nihon Kohden Corporation (6849.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,385.96 - $2,351.60$1,806.38
Multi-Stage$1,585.79 - $1,736.15$1,659.57
Blended Fair Value$1,732.97
Current Price$1,690.50
Upside2.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.35%4.44%31.1236.4234.9829.5518.1818.1818.2018.2818.2918.47
YoY Growth---14.54%4.10%18.40%62.54%-0.03%-0.10%-0.43%-0.03%-0.99%-8.33%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.58%1.82%2.13%1.15%1.00%1.23%1.19%1.41%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,159.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,052.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,631.802,269.881,361.93
Cash Retained (M)13,052.0013,052.0013,052.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,631.80-2,269.88-1,361.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,420.2010,782.1311,690.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
LTM Dividend per Share31.1631.1631.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.6596.96102.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Fair Value$1,385.96$1,806.38$2,351.60
Upside / Downside-18.01%6.85%39.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,159.0018,784.2119,430.9520,099.9620,792.0021,507.8722,153.10
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,107.007,607.4310,273.9813,115.1316,139.7419,357.0820,491.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Year 1 PV (M)6,912.126,979.597,047.07
Year 2 PV (M)8,481.768,648.158,816.17
Year 3 PV (M)9,837.6910,128.6110,425.20
Year 4 PV (M)10,999.9611,435.7911,884.45
Year 5 PV (M)11,986.9312,583.5213,203.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)211,659.23222,193.48233,143.05
Equity Value (M)259,877.69271,969.14284,519.56
Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
Fair Value$1,585.79$1,659.57$1,736.15
Upside / Downside-6.19%-1.83%2.70%

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