Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Daiwa Industries Ltd. (6459.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,988.49 - $4,277.63$2,837.45
Multi-Stage$2,686.30 - $2,946.82$2,814.10
Blended Fair Value$2,825.77
Current Price$1,660.00
Upside70.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.27%11.12%29.9629.8830.9631.0120.8341.4115.5710.4310.3710.38
YoY Growth--0.26%-3.46%-0.18%48.91%-49.71%165.95%49.34%0.54%-0.11%-0.58%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.86%2.24%2.85%1.89%4.39%1.31%0.82%0.90%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,316.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,463.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,853.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,063.39664.62398.77
Cash Retained (M)2,853.952,853.952,853.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,063.39-664.62-398.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,790.552,189.332,455.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.3649.3649.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share36.2744.3549.74
LTM Dividend per Share49.9049.9049.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share36.2744.3549.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend86.1794.2599.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Fair Value$1,988.49$2,837.45$4,277.63
Upside / Downside19.79%70.93%157.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,316.965,482.555,653.305,829.376,010.926,198.126,384.07
Payout Ratio46.32%55.06%63.79%72.53%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,463.013,018.633,606.484,228.014,884.765,578.315,905.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Year 1 PV (M)2,805.872,833.352,860.83
Year 2 PV (M)3,116.013,177.333,239.26
Year 3 PV (M)3,395.543,496.273,598.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,646.473,791.423,940.65
Year 5 PV (M)3,870.714,063.984,264.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,770.79121,551.59127,561.04
Equity Value (M)132,605.39138,913.95145,465.67
Shares Outstanding (M)49.3649.3649.36
Fair Value$2,686.30$2,814.10$2,946.82
Upside / Downside61.83%69.52%77.52%

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