Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Japan Cash Machine Co., Ltd. (6418.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,813.80 - $13,882.88$13,010.21
Multi-Stage$2,220.30 - $2,428.13$2,322.31
Blended Fair Value$7,666.26
Current Price$984.00
Upside679.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.95%7.43%33.7115.208.770.019.3721.9618.6417.7317.0018.93
YoY Growth--121.85%73.22%59,623.23%-99.84%-57.32%17.77%5.18%4.27%-10.19%14.98%
Dividend Yield--3.43%1.08%0.75%0.00%1.67%3.73%1.66%1.43%1.45%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,883.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,351.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)531.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)376.60235.38141.23
Cash Retained (M)531.69531.69531.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-376.60-235.38-141.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.08296.31390.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.9626.9626.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.7510.9914.48
LTM Dividend per Share50.1350.1350.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.7510.9914.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend55.8861.1264.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.43%6.43%7.43%
Fair Value$6,813.80$13,010.21$13,882.88
Upside / Downside592.46%1,222.18%1,310.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,883.022,004.122,133.002,270.172,416.162,571.542,648.69
Payout Ratio71.76%75.41%79.06%82.71%86.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,351.331,511.331,686.321,877.562,086.432,314.392,450.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.43%6.43%7.43%
Year 1 PV (M)1,408.461,421.821,435.18
Year 2 PV (M)1,464.571,492.481,520.66
Year 3 PV (M)1,519.671,563.321,607.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,573.781,634.341,696.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,626.901,705.541,787.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,259.9254,785.7857,408.37
Equity Value (M)59,853.2962,603.2765,455.82
Shares Outstanding (M)26.9626.9626.96
Fair Value$2,220.30$2,322.31$2,428.13
Upside / Downside125.64%136.01%146.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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