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Definitive Analysis

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Aichi Corporation (6345.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,647.52 - $11,548.74$4,603.42
Multi-Stage$2,200.40 - $2,407.21$2,301.90
Blended Fair Value$3,452.66
Current Price$1,367.00
Upside152.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.35%14.69%43.1740.3639.4134.5229.4324.1224.1221.9319.7312.06
YoY Growth--6.96%2.43%14.14%17.31%22.03%0.00%10.00%11.11%63.63%10.00%
Dividend Yield--3.19%3.19%4.51%4.02%3.61%3.25%3.37%3.38%2.53%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,166.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,102.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,063.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,233.24770.77462.46
Cash Retained (M)2,063.652,063.652,063.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,233.24-770.77-462.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)830.411,292.881,601.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.8170.8170.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.7318.2622.61
LTM Dividend per Share57.9457.9457.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.7318.2622.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.6676.2080.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Fair Value$2,647.52$4,603.42$11,548.74
Upside / Downside93.67%236.75%744.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,166.196,483.296,816.707,167.267,535.847,923.388,161.08
Payout Ratio66.53%71.23%75.92%80.61%85.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,102.544,617.815,175.225,777.756,428.577,131.047,549.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)4,279.344,320.434,361.53
Year 2 PV (M)4,444.384,530.154,616.73
Year 3 PV (M)4,598.154,731.884,868.18
Year 4 PV (M)4,741.114,925.855,115.94
Year 5 PV (M)4,873.725,112.245,360.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)132,873.97139,377.09146,132.38
Equity Value (M)155,810.67162,997.65170,454.78
Shares Outstanding (M)70.8170.8170.81
Fair Value$2,200.40$2,301.90$2,407.21
Upside / Downside60.97%68.39%76.09%

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