Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CMOC Group Limited (603993.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.43 - $162.13$55.02
Multi-Stage$18.33 - $20.03$19.17
Blended Fair Value$37.09
Current Price$15.70
Upside136.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.40%21.61%0.330.300.230.120.120.200.130.090.040.06
YoY Growth--9.94%30.86%96.74%-7.64%-37.26%58.84%47.02%90.09%-28.99%36.86%
Dividend Yield--4.30%3.60%3.79%2.21%2.37%5.74%2.53%1.01%0.95%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,538.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,739.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,799.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,907.752,442.351,465.41
Cash Retained (M)12,799.0212,799.0212,799.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,907.75-2,442.35-1,465.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,891.2710,356.6811,333.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21,108.2021,108.2021,108.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.490.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.490.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.43$55.02$162.13
Upside / Downside93.80%250.46%932.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,538.7720,808.7922,161.3723,601.8625,135.9826,769.8127,572.91
Payout Ratio34.49%45.60%56.70%67.80%78.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,739.759,487.8512,564.7316,001.5119,832.0024,092.8325,504.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,697.118,779.548,861.98
Year 2 PV (M)10,557.6410,758.7410,961.73
Year 3 PV (M)12,324.8612,678.6613,039.17
Year 4 PV (M)14,002.1314,540.6115,094.48
Year 5 PV (M)15,592.7416,345.8817,127.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)325,722.34341,454.86357,789.49
Equity Value (M)386,896.82404,558.28422,874.68
Shares Outstanding (M)21,108.2021,108.2021,108.20
Fair Value$18.33$19.17$20.03
Upside / Downside16.75%22.08%27.60%

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