Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $15.24 - $24.84 | $19.54 |
| Multi-Stage | $26.89 - $29.54 | $28.19 |
| Blended Fair Value | $23.86 | |
| Current Price | $5.76 | |
| Upside | 314.29% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.51% | 26.16% | 0.90 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.33 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -11.73% | 2.28% | -6.66% | -10.48% | -10.25% | 37.15% | 29.68% | 186.64% | 189.69% | 2.16% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 15.23% | 18.62% | 18.04% | 16.74% | 14.58% | 17.30% | 10.14% | 7.26% | 2.08% | 1.03% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 5,108.39 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,036.42 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3,071.98 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,021.68 | 638.55 | 383.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3,071.98 | 3,071.98 | 3,071.98 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,021.68 | -638.55 | -383.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,050.30 | 2,433.43 | 2,688.85 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,693.64 | 3,693.64 | 3,693.64 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.11 | 1.21 | 1.28 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -0.21% | 0.79% | 1.79% |
| Fair Value | $15.24 | $19.54 | $24.84 |
| Upside / Downside | 164.66% | 239.21% | 331.24% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 5,108.39 | 5,148.69 | 5,189.29 | 5,230.22 | 5,271.48 | 5,313.05 | 5,472.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 39.86% | 49.89% | 59.92% | 69.95% | 79.97% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,036.42 | 2,568.75 | 3,109.35 | 3,658.31 | 4,215.75 | 4,781.75 | 5,062.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -0.21% | 0.79% | 1.79% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,376.19 | 2,400.00 | 2,423.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,660.65 | 2,714.24 | 2,768.37 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,895.74 | 2,983.67 | 3,073.36 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,086.82 | 3,212.43 | 3,341.83 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,238.79 | 3,404.36 | 3,576.63 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 85,053.12 | 89,401.06 | 93,925.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 99,311.31 | 104,115.76 | 109,109.02 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,693.64 | 3,693.64 | 3,693.64 |
| Fair Value | $26.89 | $28.19 | $29.54 |
| Upside / Downside | 366.79% | 389.37% | 412.84% |
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