Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zheshang Securities Co., Ltd. (601878.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.21 - $111.60$104.58
Multi-Stage$15.96 - $17.47$16.70
Blended Fair Value$60.64
Current Price$11.53
Upside425.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.97%37.31%0.290.260.310.310.240.240.210.120.180.03
YoY Growth--13.01%-16.08%-2.18%29.43%1.18%12.31%80.15%-32.51%411.39%180.89%
Dividend Yield--2.56%2.33%3.05%2.99%1.89%2.39%1.82%0.93%1.44%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,558.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)900.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)511.79319.87191.92
Cash Retained (M)1,658.751,658.751,658.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-511.79-319.87-191.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,146.961,338.891,466.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,560.264,560.264,560.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.21$104.58$111.60
Upside / Downside274.74%807.05%867.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,558.952,725.282,902.433,091.093,292.013,505.993,611.17
Payout Ratio35.18%46.14%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)900.201,257.521,657.492,104.142,601.863,155.393,340.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,168.631,179.711,190.78
Year 2 PV (M)1,431.441,458.711,486.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,688.731,737.211,786.60
Year 4 PV (M)1,940.572,015.202,091.96
Year 5 PV (M)2,187.062,292.692,402.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,381.9267,491.5970,720.28
Equity Value (M)72,798.3576,175.1179,678.23
Shares Outstanding (M)4,560.264,560.264,560.26
Fair Value$15.96$16.70$17.47
Upside / Downside38.45%44.88%51.54%

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